Q3 saw fast rate hikes and an uncertain future.
How is the US household credit doing?
Here is the latest Fed report: š
US household debt up $351 billion in Q3 ā22.
The total debt reached $16.51 trillion.
$1.26 trillion increase or +8.5% vs. Q3 ā21.
š” Mortgage
Up $282 billion Q/Q, +9.3% Y/Y.
With the interest rate rising fast,
Origination $ back to early 2020 level.
Consumers began to tap HELOC again.
š Auto loan
Up $22 billion Q/Q, +5.6% Y/Y.
Origination slower but still elevated.
New car price remains historically high,
While used car price down 11% Y/Y.
š³ Credit card
Up $38 billion Q/Q, +120 billion Y/Y.
15% Y/Y rebound is the highest in 20 years.
With higher prices and summer sunshine,
Consumers not shy to pull out their cards.
š©āš Student loan
Down slightly Q/Q, -0.6% Y/Y.
The total balance is $1.57 trillion.
One last payment pause till Dec 31.
Though forgiveness is being challenged.
š© Credit Quality
For all the major credit products, the late-stage delinquency rates remained low.
The underwriting is still robust: the median score of new mortgages is 768.
šØ Risk Normalization
The risk normalization (increase) carries on.
š The flow rates to both 30+ and 90+ days delinquency continue to climb.
š 28,500 individuals had foreclosures in Q3 vs. 35,000 in Q2, 24,000 in Q1.
Full Report:
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